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lunes, junio 13, 2011

El candidato Carstens

Las líneas argumentativas que maneja Agustín Carstens en entrevista para el Wall Street Journal son, en lo concerniente al proceso sucesorio en el FMI, acordes a esta declaración conjunta de los denominados países BRIC
We believe that, if the Fund is to have credibility and legitimacy, its Managing Director should be selected after broad consultation with the membership. It should result in the most competent person being appointed as Managing Director, regardless of his or her nationality. We also believe that adequate representation of emerging market and developing members in the Fund’s management is critical to its legitimacy and effectiveness. The next Managing Director of the Fund should not only be a strongly qualified person, with solid technical background and political acumen, but also a person that is committed to continuing the process of change and reform of the institution so as to adapt it to the new realities of the world economy.
No obstante, el candidato mexicano no ha logrado obtener el apoyo de dicho conjunto de naciones en su pretensión por presidir el Fondo. En entrevista en Financial Times, Carstens, friamente racional, manda el mensaje de que Europa debe tomar la "medicina" que marcan los cánones para salir de sus problemas económicos. No dice nada de Estados Unidos ni menciona el factor social que también se debe tomar en cuenta para la puesta en marcha de tales medidas.

Kevin Gallager en The Guardian, esgrime razones por las cuáles Carstens no debe ser el elegido en el artículo Why Agustín Carstens should not be next head of the IMF:
Agustín Carstens' record epitomises what is wrong with global finance and would send the organisation back to its darkest days.From 2003 to 2006, Carstens served as deputy managing director of the IMF. This is the period when even the IMF admits that it had hit rock bottom. By the IMF own account: "The IMF's ability to correctly identify the mounting risks was hindered by a high degree of groupthink, intellectual capture, a general mindset that a major financial crisis in large advanced economies was unlikely, and incomplete analytical approaches."... Despite the fact that Mexico was among the developing countries hardest hit by the crisis, on Carstens' watch, Mexico had one of the feeblest stimulus packages and most uneven recoveries from the crisis in the western hemisphere.... Yet, while the IMF had started to preach change, Carstens held Mexico to tight inflation targeting and shunned capital controls. Relative high interest rates and unchecked capital flows in Mexico under Carstens have choked off credit for the real economy in Mexico, overvalued the exchange rate, and put Mexico at a competitive disadvantage, especially with respect to China.
También acusa Gallager el supuesto apego religioso de Carstens a la ortodoxia de la Escuela de Chicago, por lo que le parecen mejores candidatos los ministros de finanzas de Chile y de Colombia:
This steadfast resistance to reflection and change should come as no surprise, given that Carstens is a "Chicago boy"... At the University of Chicago economics department where Carstens got his training, the now discredited theories of rational expectations and efficient markets have long been gospel. These theories claim that financial markets price assets perfectly and that any government regulation of those markets would drag down the economy. Moreover, when a crisis does hit, it is natural – and there should not be attempts to recover through government stimulus.It is clear that "markets first, regulation last" has been the rule of thumb for Agustín Carstens for decades. As he tries to woo other emerging markets, he may change his tune during this campaign. Don't be fooled. The old cliché holds: actions speak louder than words and Agustín Carstens has long been a standardbearer for a "groupthink" that has should never again hold sway at the highest levels of global finance.
Sobre este útimo punto, Gallager es confrontado en la sección de comentarios por Tim Worstall que le acusa de no entender lo que es la expectativa racional ni los mercados eficientes que critica. Magú, el excelente cartonista de La Jornada, se opone a la candidatura de Carstens pero por lo que podríamos identificar, humorísticamente, como "daños colaterales":

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